Trades and positions 28.5.2012

Currently short FME and FRE + DAX, long IFX and BEI.

Dax sentiment 24.5.2012

According to indicators, we have a little evidence of reliable market bottom yet. So far the trading range of 6200-6400 has proven to be reliable. Dax hasn't yet touched it's 200 days moving average which is holding the key level near 6200. It is highly expected that we could at least visit 6150-6180 before forming any reliable (tradable) market bottom.

US money flow 24.5.2012

Is this just a rebound or what since it feels that the selling has just about to accelerate?

Dax and trades 21.5.2012

The market is acting as expected. Let's watch this rebound if it is an intermediate term trend turn or just a bear market rally. Overbought and oversold condition is seemingly easening and indicating a nearing bottom. Anyway, Dax could rebound at least over 6400, perhaps 6544 is a decent target.

Dax and risk cycle was already at reasonable level to indicate at least short term trend change.

Check also the other indicators.

LONG: DAX, DCX, CBK, DBK, HEID, SAP, LIN. SHORT: FRE, FME.

Thoughts about Dax and the current trend 19.5.2012

Dax is flirting with the lower bottom of declining trend. Apparently, Fibonacci 50% and 200 days moving average should have their impact on forthcoming week. It could be reasonable to assume the trading range between 6200 - 6400.

Eur-usd rebounded from lower low which was should be very important support. Therefore, we can expect more rebound before testing the low again.

Some of the indicators still point down even the latest behavior of Volume index hasn't been exactly in unison compared to price index (Dax).

McClellan has been quite reliable and clear indicator to reveal longer trends.

Also Overbought and Oversold condition doesn't look like it would turn right now.

Risk behavior suggests that we could soon be nearing the bottom, and so far this indicator is at reasonable level compared to prices and we only need one single day to turn this indicator up.

We also need the high correlation level to lower first before any big trend change could happen.

Overview: The evidence shows that the intermediate term trend is still down, but there are some minor observations in the investor behavior that suggest some hesitation and at least short term rebound. The question remains if the rebound will also act as an intermediate term market bottom. The big question is whether the institutions and block traders shall join this sell-off, and thus driving the prices even lower, since now these major participants have stayed on the sidelines.

Black Friday or Monday?

Markets are on a edge of falling further.

EUR-USD shouldn't fall below 1.26, HSI shouldn't fall below 18000. S&P500 already below 1300, DJI shouldn't fall below 12200. According to money flow of block trades, there hasn't been any major outflows made by big institutions, yet. So far they have managed to keep their nerves. Otherwise we will see more selling and bigger capitulation.

Hang Seng 18.5.2012

Hang Seng is breaking down below 38,2% Fibonacci and long term rising trend line. If the market cannot find any supports between 17.500-18.000 it is going to be a massacre. Obviously it is trying to head below 16.000... 

Dax, correlation and sell-off 17.5.2012

Watch out, rising correlation is one of the worst enemies of  "modern" portfolio theory! Stock picking and diversification won't help your portfolio if the market wants to continue the current sell-off.

Dax technical update 16.5.2012

Ok, it seems obvious that Dax won't stop until it reach 6200. My earlier call was correct.

Exit long position at open and continue with short position and check out the indicators which are still far from pointing a reliable market bottom.

Trades 15.5.2012

FME: LONG; sell at close / next open if new high; PT 55,703

TKA :  LONG; sell at close / next open if new high; PT 16,96

Exit Dax short and take long position.

Few indicators

23% of Dax stocks are still above their 50 day moving average.

Last week we wrote that the stock correlation is in uptrend. Watch out carefully, because diversification doesn't help if it gets too high.

No signs of a bottoming process yet. We need sellers to calm down and more buyers.

If you liked our indicators, you should check this page more often.

Trading 14.5.2012

Currently our portfolio is short on Dax and short on stocks. No long positions.

US money flow 14.5.2012

Even the stock prices have declined, there hasn't been any meaningful selling nor buying. However, we have two option: 1) if we get bad news, we will absolutely see stock prices to drop more. 2) if we get good news, we will see buying and short covering action, which will get the stock prices to higher levels.

US money flow 11.5.2012

According to money flow, it seems obvious that the investors have no clue if the intermediate / long term trend is up or down.

Dax situation 11.5.2012

Stock correlation has been rising which is usually a little bit worrisome sign. 

The intermediate term trend is down while McClellan indicator is decreasing. 

50 day cycle doesn't either show any signs of bottoming yet.

Dax volume index has been leading the way down.

But still the investors have been willing to increase the risk of their portfolios.

Dax indicators 10.5.2012

Even I wrote that the short term is up, the intermediate term trend is down. Yesterday volume index made lower close while Dax close higher. 70% of cases this has indicated lower lows for Dax. Check out my other indicators as well. They are easy to interpret and currently seemingly pointing down.

US money flow 10.5.2012

No clear trend in money flow hence the investors are not yet willing to sell nor buy in a broader sense.

Dax sentiment 10.5.2012

Did anyone thought that the situation with Greece is over? People jeopardize Greece's Eurozone membership and investors seem to be a little bit more worried.

the source: www.cognitrend.com

Short term bottom trades 9.5.2012

And suddenly the market became bullish. Added positions for CBK, DBK, HEID + long Dax + holding short positions with FRE and FME.

I have some indicators pointing a short term bottom, so there might be couple of green days ahead.

Key level for S&P500

Interesting to see what is about to happen for S&P500. Does anyone believe that breaking below a key level would bring it down to 1220-1250?

Dax update 9.5.2012

Key level. Seems like Dax is breaking below the rising trend line. If it succeeds, there will definitely be more down ahead at least 6250, maybe even below 6000.

Bearish dax 9.5.2012

Volume Index has been leading the way down. It already went below 27.10.2011 highs, which I have to read careful since it can indicate lower lows for Dax.

It also seems that the sellers haven't been satisfied yet.

The indicators with daily updated close values can also be found here.

View 8.5.2012

Waiting the indicators to start showing any sings of a bottoming process. Before the process, we can only enjoy the roller coaster ride.

Dax is heading to 6200.

Hang Seng is going to look ugly below 20.000.

EUR-USD is going to 1.25.

And wait AUD-JPY to touch 79.

US money flow 8.5.2012

Money inflow slowing down.

Trades 8.5.2012

Dax short.

Market overview 8.5.2012

Market rebounded yesterday as planned. Money flow is still positive, so there are chances for higher high. All the indicators are currently down and possible bottom could be near.

In a technical perspective Dax is in a longer term uptrend and tested the rising trend line. It rose back above it's Fibonacci 6544, which has many times proven to be very important technical level.

It also seems that Hang Seng Index has very important key level at 20551, which is currently holding.

EUR-USD broke down 1.31 which it has been trying already quite a long time. Currently the fall of Euro is seemingly related to politics and especially the last weekend vote results from France and Greece. Falling to a lower levels near 1.25 is still possible even it started to look ugly for other assets as well.

AUD-JPY didn't yet break down below 81, thus indicating that riskier assets are still in favor and the latest drop was only temporarily.

US money flow 7.5.2012

US money flow still positive, so it is still a good time to buy.

Trades 7.5.2012

The latest trades have been working better than expected. Also taking long position at the European market open has proven to be exceptionally profitable trade. However, there is still a divergence between volume and prices. The models suggest to hold CBK-DBK-HEID for tomorrow + short FRE-FME + sell index long positions tomorrow European market open and tomorrow's US market open.

Indicators

Check out Indicators page where you can find up-to-date graphs for studying purposes.

US money flow (reboud on Monday) 4.5.2012

Shorter term money flow shows some commitment to buy, hence it is highly expected that we will see a rebound on Monday. The money flow algos suggest to long Dax when German market opens + long S&P500 when the US market opens. 

Trade performance 4.5.2012

Such a wonderful day!

TIP: Buy CBK-DBK-HEID at close, hold maximum 2 days, buy also MAN at close with profit target 89.2.

So far, the week was interesting:

Volume index 4.5.2012

Volume index trying to make lower lows and thus suggesting Dax to dive under 6500.

US money flow 4.5.2012

Money flow cautiously positive even the shorter term money flow is still mixed. The signals are also mixed. Long Dax at open, then short when US opens. 

Thoughts about market short term conditions 3.5.2012

In despite of the trading models and algorithms, I see market in an interesting condition. My personal attitude is currently a slightly bearish, so it is easier to see the negative signs.

EUR-USD has been trying to get below 1.31 for a while. Breaking below 1.3 could take it to near 1.27 which should also take the stocks down. Also (high-risk vs. low-risk) AUD-JPY has been in a downtrend since the middle of March and we just saw new lower low. Will we see it falling below 81? At least the fall of both these currency pairs would definitely bring the stocks down in a short term.

And look at Dax while it is again about to try how the bigger rising trend line holds. If Dax breaks below the trend line, then 6544 is a definite. Although Dax has been trying to break below 6544 already since April 10th, this time the probability for a break down will be higher. Maybe we will see 6244? S&P 500 breaking below 1380 would take it back to 1357.

Without any serious bad news, the previous outcome should be enough to interest big players to push the buy buttons. At least the world seems to have a faith in US market and remember, stocks doesn't equal the economy.

Dax and correlation

Correlation is still in a downtrend thus giving benefits for portfolio diversifying.

Intraday candles 3.5.2012

Quite a volatile day for some stocks...

US money flow 2.5.2012

US money flow positive, but I would still short Dax at open and also short S&P500 at open. Shorter term money flow is anyway mixed, so the investors have actually no clue where to go.