Dax and imminent rebound

Obviously we will see some kind of a rebound tomorrow even the intermediate term trend is about to turn down.

50 day cycle just gave a sell signal.

Dax McClellan Summation Index already made a negative divergence with the underlying index. Currently it is heading down.

It is highly probable that Dax will fall at least below 7200, and then appropriate short term target could be found from a weekly chart. So far Fibonacci level 7037 seems to be enough, maybe even below 7000.

Dax week 37

Will we see all time high soon? The chart is beginning to give an indication of higher high level if the rest of the week continues to advance. Currently we are trying to break above 7400, which would lead to 8000.

McClellan Summation Index indicates that the trend is up.

50 day cycle indicates that the trend is up.

I would like to see 100% of Dax stocks abobe their 50 day moving average before intermediate term topping process.

Only concern is that the current shorter term risk cycle isn't behaving normally, although the current situation isn't normal either. Anyway, market has been pricing QE3 for a while and when we got it, Dax could pullback soon -2-5 %.

Dax week 36

A valid break-out above major resistance levels. Dax could be heading to 6400-6600 range before making a pullback to current level. Anyway, this week is still crucial, especially 7200 support level.

Dax week 34

Dax seems to turn on the bears side. Closing below declining trend line isn't good in this situation. On a weekly chart Dax 6594 seems to be the downside target. Stochastics indicator already gave us a sell sign.

Short term trend is down according to risk behavior. This could mean few down days, then followed by a rebound and then more down.

Longer term trend indicator also gave us a sell sign. 

The mood became bearish, so let's see if there will be some kind of a topping process or a pullback. September has, by the way, been one of the most bearish months in a year. A healthy pullback and Fed announcement of QE3 seems to be the name of the game.

Dax week 33

Dax finished the week above the declining trend line, which we have been watching closely. Stochastics is indicating overbought condition which is not yet a selling sign. The condition could easily last 1-10 weeks.

On a daily basis, technical break-out above the longer term declining trend line was strong and without volume surge. Therefore the break out should not be treated an exhaustion and we will see higher high during next week.

It is expected that all the Dax stocks would climb above their 50 day moving average before intermediate term market top.

McClellan Summation Index is in a strong uptrend.  

Risk behavior has been declining even the index has been rising, so risk appetite should grow next week and lead stocks higher.

Stocks are highly correlated, so the investors haven't been picking the "right" stocks but only following the market trend.

It is obvious that Dax is trying to reach above March high and above 7200.

Dax technical 6.8.2012

On a weekly candles Dax is soon approaching it's major resistance near 7000 where lies a declining trend line drawn from last year's peak. Additionally, stochastics is indicating an overbought condition. If the market wants to stay positive we could consolidate at these levels or at least the upside potential should be limited?

Dax 25.7.2012

Technical indicators are currently a little bit bearish. MACD lines have crossed downwards and RSI reading is below 50. However, 200 days moving average has served as a support during whole July. 6544 Fibonacci level broke down violently and even Dax is flirting with it's SMA(200) we can still expect 6242 level to be touched.

Shorter term cycle indicator is down and investors are getting rid of riskier assets and stocks.

McClellan Summation Index is also pointing down.

50 day cycle indicator lines also crossed downwards and normally this has meant more down ahead.

US investors seem to have no clue whether to invest or not.

Dax 1.6.2012

Classic!

Thoughts about Dax and the current trend 19.5.2012

Dax is flirting with the lower bottom of declining trend. Apparently, Fibonacci 50% and 200 days moving average should have their impact on forthcoming week. It could be reasonable to assume the trading range between 6200 - 6400.

Eur-usd rebounded from lower low which was should be very important support. Therefore, we can expect more rebound before testing the low again.

Some of the indicators still point down even the latest behavior of Volume index hasn't been exactly in unison compared to price index (Dax).

McClellan has been quite reliable and clear indicator to reveal longer trends.

Also Overbought and Oversold condition doesn't look like it would turn right now.

Risk behavior suggests that we could soon be nearing the bottom, and so far this indicator is at reasonable level compared to prices and we only need one single day to turn this indicator up.

We also need the high correlation level to lower first before any big trend change could happen.

Overview: The evidence shows that the intermediate term trend is still down, but there are some minor observations in the investor behavior that suggest some hesitation and at least short term rebound. The question remains if the rebound will also act as an intermediate term market bottom. The big question is whether the institutions and block traders shall join this sell-off, and thus driving the prices even lower, since now these major participants have stayed on the sidelines.

Dax technical update 16.5.2012

Ok, it seems obvious that Dax won't stop until it reach 6200. My earlier call was correct.

Exit long position at open and continue with short position and check out the indicators which are still far from pointing a reliable market bottom.

Dax update 9.5.2012

Key level. Seems like Dax is breaking below the rising trend line. If it succeeds, there will definitely be more down ahead at least 6250, maybe even below 6000.

Dax and technicals 3.5.2012

A few technical points.

Dax has been struggling above and below 6750 which has proven to be important support/resistance. Let's see if Dax will go down to 6621 or up near 7000. The indicators have previously trying to point a short term top. 

For a bigger downtrend we might want to see eur/usd breaking above 1.31.

...even riskier aud/jpy is already making lower lows. So, be careful.

Dax indicators 27.4.2012

In addition to pure technical view, all of the indicators point to higher high.

20 day highs vs. lows pointing up.

Intermediate Dax cycles pointing up.

Dax volume index already made a fulfilled forecast to a climb above 6800. 

I have seen arguments that the average volume has been low, but I cannot see any point in that since the volume seems to be decent.

Dax risk indicator has became quite high. Previously when this indicator has climbed above 70, there hasn't been much room for the upside. It is still expected that Dax could touch 7000 before consolidating. 

3 month's biggest gainer is Man (+20,3%) while the biggest loser is Metro (-20%). At the same time Dax is up +4%.

Currently the correlation between the stocks and index is lowering, which is a good for stock picking and diversifying. Nowadays diversifying doesn't help in a downtrends, but fortunately uptrends still offer great opportunities.

If you read between the lines, the current short term trend seems to be up (for a while...).

Dax indicators 16.4.2012

The support at 6544 managed to hold, so now we can try the opposite direction and above 6800. RSI is already making higher lows, which is a positive signal.

20 day high-low ratio is already at low level comparing to normal cyclical behavior.

Dax modified RSI is also showing sings of a bottoming process.

Also the risk appetite is growing. 

Overbought and sold already converged, so the best shorting opportunities have gone so far.

Dax volume indicator is in unison with Dax. 

Bear territory seems to end soon.