Hang Seng 18.5.2012

Hang Seng is breaking down below 38,2% Fibonacci and long term rising trend line. If the market cannot find any supports between 17.500-18.000 it is going to be a massacre. Obviously it is trying to head below 16.000... 

Market overview 8.5.2012

Market rebounded yesterday as planned. Money flow is still positive, so there are chances for higher high. All the indicators are currently down and possible bottom could be near.

In a technical perspective Dax is in a longer term uptrend and tested the rising trend line. It rose back above it's Fibonacci 6544, which has many times proven to be very important technical level.

It also seems that Hang Seng Index has very important key level at 20551, which is currently holding.

EUR-USD broke down 1.31 which it has been trying already quite a long time. Currently the fall of Euro is seemingly related to politics and especially the last weekend vote results from France and Greece. Falling to a lower levels near 1.25 is still possible even it started to look ugly for other assets as well.

AUD-JPY didn't yet break down below 81, thus indicating that riskier assets are still in favor and the latest drop was only temporarily.

Global indexes and currencies

The latest bullish development with Western indexes has been a little bit weird, because the bullishness hasn't been reflected into other markets and risky assets.

EUR-USD has been pointing down. 

AUD-JPY has been struggling with upside resistance.

Hang Seng has been struggling with 61,8% Fibonacci resistance for a month.

Currently Dax is going  lose it's moment and to have a negative divergence with RSI, although this can be solved by having a positive day on Monday. 

The upcoming seasonality supports higher highs according that the next 4 weeks has historically been very bullish and April been the second best month in a year. 

Hang Seng, AUD and JPY

Hang Seng reached it's Fibonacci 61.8% and now tries to reverse. Decline below 21200 could signal further decline to 20500. Daily MACD is weak.

Even the Japanese have intervened Yen, trying to weaken it, they might have succeeded in the short term. Usually these kind of effects are not long lasting. Investor gauge AUD-JPY made a reversal candle yesterday by touching Fibonacci 76.8%, and is now trying to head lower.