Black Friday or Monday?

Markets are on a edge of falling further.

EUR-USD shouldn't fall below 1.26, HSI shouldn't fall below 18000. S&P500 already below 1300, DJI shouldn't fall below 12200. According to money flow of block trades, there hasn't been any major outflows made by big institutions, yet. So far they have managed to keep their nerves. Otherwise we will see more selling and bigger capitulation.

Key level for S&P500

Interesting to see what is about to happen for S&P500. Does anyone believe that breaking below a key level would bring it down to 1220-1250?

US money flow (reboud on Monday) 4.5.2012

Shorter term money flow shows some commitment to buy, hence it is highly expected that we will see a rebound on Monday. The money flow algos suggest to long Dax when German market opens + long S&P500 when the US market opens. 

Thoughts about market short term conditions 3.5.2012

In despite of the trading models and algorithms, I see market in an interesting condition. My personal attitude is currently a slightly bearish, so it is easier to see the negative signs.

EUR-USD has been trying to get below 1.31 for a while. Breaking below 1.3 could take it to near 1.27 which should also take the stocks down. Also (high-risk vs. low-risk) AUD-JPY has been in a downtrend since the middle of March and we just saw new lower low. Will we see it falling below 81? At least the fall of both these currency pairs would definitely bring the stocks down in a short term.

And look at Dax while it is again about to try how the bigger rising trend line holds. If Dax breaks below the trend line, then 6544 is a definite. Although Dax has been trying to break below 6544 already since April 10th, this time the probability for a break down will be higher. Maybe we will see 6244? S&P 500 breaking below 1380 would take it back to 1357.

Without any serious bad news, the previous outcome should be enough to interest big players to push the buy buttons. At least the world seems to have a faith in US market and remember, stocks doesn't equal the economy.

Technical view and trade setup 2.4.2012

Not much to say. The rebound is due to previous forecasts and still the indicators are very mixed. We will need to see a little bit more before we can make any judgments about correction or pullback. So far the bulls are doing fine and this is good way to play out the bears, because still too many investors are waiting a correction or pullback.

Dax is flirting with previous support 6974. Above the level bullish, below bearish. Upside targets are 7014 / 7129.

Even S&P 500 has managed to stay above it's rising trend line.

Sell Basket trade near close. BUY: BB Biotech if open < 61,99. Sell at close.

US money low 14.3.2012

Money outflow. 2 positive days during last 10 days and 6 positive days during last 20 days. Seems like short squeeze gives great profits for long positions.

Trend following update 13.3.2012

Trend following system doesn't want to long many indexes or stocks.

Dax above 7163 and S&P500 above 1391,69 during the week seem very difficult.

US technical / money flow 29.2.2012

Negative money flow. Let's see how the situation developes.

Taking into account that S&P500 has hit it's resistance at 1376.1 (May's high) and is trying to break down below the rising trend line, the situation for the next weeks seems bearish.

Trend Following update

The Trend Following system have stepped out of most of the long positions. It won't try to long Dax anymore  below 7167 and S&P500 below 1391. Those targets seem very high to be reached during this week.

US money flow 22.2.2012

No big moves yet.

Sentiment comparison Germany vs. US

Sector comparison between Dax indexes and US indexes reveals that the continents differ in a manner of chasing beta.

During last 5 days the Small Caps and Technologies clearly outperformed in the US.

In Germany the best performing sectors were actually Middle Caps and Blue Chips.

Still it is obvious that the US is more bullish than Europe.

Dax resistance / support 12.1.2011

Dax broker up the descending trend line and has now been trying to push up through strong resistance area 6170-6190 and Fibonacci at 6203.

In a shorter term it looks that Dax should go lower (and attract more institutional investors to buy) if it wants to go higher. 6050-6080 would be fine. Below 6000 the picture is starting to look bearish and the gaps up  would have a exhaustion meaning and confirmation for a trend reversal.

I have been watching US markets closely lately, because it is obvious that is has been keeping the stock market up. S&P500 has already made higher level and is now trying to push up even this would be perfect level to make a trend reversal.

It also seems that money inflow hasn't been strong anymore. Money outflow at these important resistance areas could definitely trigger a decline in stocks.