Thursday, May 3, 2012

Thoughts about market short term conditions 3.5.2012

In despite of the trading models and algorithms, I see market in an interesting condition. My personal attitude is currently a slightly bearish, so it is easier to see the negative signs.

EUR-USD has been trying to get below 1.31 for a while. Breaking below 1.3 could take it to near 1.27 which should also take the stocks down. Also (high-risk vs. low-risk) AUD-JPY has been in a downtrend since the middle of March and we just saw new lower low. Will we see it falling below 81? At least the fall of both these currency pairs would definitely bring the stocks down in a short term.

And look at Dax while it is again about to try how the bigger rising trend line holds. If Dax breaks below the trend line, then 6544 is a definite. Although Dax has been trying to break below 6544 already since April 10th, this time the probability for a break down will be higher. Maybe we will see 6244? S&P 500 breaking below 1380 would take it back to 1357.

Without any serious bad news, the previous outcome should be enough to interest big players to push the buy buttons. At least the world seems to have a faith in US market and remember, stocks doesn't equal the economy.