Dax and imminent rebound

Obviously we will see some kind of a rebound tomorrow even the intermediate term trend is about to turn down.

50 day cycle just gave a sell signal.

Dax McClellan Summation Index already made a negative divergence with the underlying index. Currently it is heading down.

It is highly probable that Dax will fall at least below 7200, and then appropriate short term target could be found from a weekly chart. So far Fibonacci level 7037 seems to be enough, maybe even below 7000.

Dax week 37

Will we see all time high soon? The chart is beginning to give an indication of higher high level if the rest of the week continues to advance. Currently we are trying to break above 7400, which would lead to 8000.

McClellan Summation Index indicates that the trend is up.

50 day cycle indicates that the trend is up.

I would like to see 100% of Dax stocks abobe their 50 day moving average before intermediate term topping process.

Only concern is that the current shorter term risk cycle isn't behaving normally, although the current situation isn't normal either. Anyway, market has been pricing QE3 for a while and when we got it, Dax could pullback soon -2-5 %.

Dax week 34

Dax seems to turn on the bears side. Closing below declining trend line isn't good in this situation. On a weekly chart Dax 6594 seems to be the downside target. Stochastics indicator already gave us a sell sign.

Short term trend is down according to risk behavior. This could mean few down days, then followed by a rebound and then more down.

Longer term trend indicator also gave us a sell sign. 

The mood became bearish, so let's see if there will be some kind of a topping process or a pullback. September has, by the way, been one of the most bearish months in a year. A healthy pullback and Fed announcement of QE3 seems to be the name of the game.

Dax 25.7.2012

Technical indicators are currently a little bit bearish. MACD lines have crossed downwards and RSI reading is below 50. However, 200 days moving average has served as a support during whole July. 6544 Fibonacci level broke down violently and even Dax is flirting with it's SMA(200) we can still expect 6242 level to be touched.

Shorter term cycle indicator is down and investors are getting rid of riskier assets and stocks.

McClellan Summation Index is also pointing down.

50 day cycle indicator lines also crossed downwards and normally this has meant more down ahead.

US investors seem to have no clue whether to invest or not.

Dax trend and rebound 23.7.2012

Seems like the risk appetite is about to decrease as expected. Chasing high beta doesn't usually last long.

Anyway, longer term trend still seems to point up.

Stock correlation is at unpleasant high level, so diversification won't help now because most of the stocks are moving into same direction.

We already have had a quite strong pullback. It would be great opportunity for a rebound tomorrow.

Dax trend 12.6.2012

Looks like Dax has probabilities for opening above 6200 tomorrow. Some of the indicators are already showing some strength, thus suggesting short term / intermediate term trend change.

Dax has been trading more and more riskier stocks. The indicator is currently just above 50 and usually this level has indicated higher levels for the index as well.

50 day cycle is obviously turning to uptrend in despite of bad news.

 Stock correlation is heading to lower levels and giving better opportunities for stock picking strategy.

Dax and trades 21.5.2012

The market is acting as expected. Let's watch this rebound if it is an intermediate term trend turn or just a bear market rally. Overbought and oversold condition is seemingly easening and indicating a nearing bottom. Anyway, Dax could rebound at least over 6400, perhaps 6544 is a decent target.

Dax and risk cycle was already at reasonable level to indicate at least short term trend change.

Check also the other indicators.

LONG: DAX, DCX, CBK, DBK, HEID, SAP, LIN. SHORT: FRE, FME.

Thoughts about Dax and the current trend 19.5.2012

Dax is flirting with the lower bottom of declining trend. Apparently, Fibonacci 50% and 200 days moving average should have their impact on forthcoming week. It could be reasonable to assume the trading range between 6200 - 6400.

Eur-usd rebounded from lower low which was should be very important support. Therefore, we can expect more rebound before testing the low again.

Some of the indicators still point down even the latest behavior of Volume index hasn't been exactly in unison compared to price index (Dax).

McClellan has been quite reliable and clear indicator to reveal longer trends.

Also Overbought and Oversold condition doesn't look like it would turn right now.

Risk behavior suggests that we could soon be nearing the bottom, and so far this indicator is at reasonable level compared to prices and we only need one single day to turn this indicator up.

We also need the high correlation level to lower first before any big trend change could happen.

Overview: The evidence shows that the intermediate term trend is still down, but there are some minor observations in the investor behavior that suggest some hesitation and at least short term rebound. The question remains if the rebound will also act as an intermediate term market bottom. The big question is whether the institutions and block traders shall join this sell-off, and thus driving the prices even lower, since now these major participants have stayed on the sidelines.

Dax indicators 2.5.2012

According to to my earlier posts, we are currently consolidating. The range remains unknown even 6750 seems to act as an important support/resistance.

20 day highs vs. lows seems a little bit sloppy at the moment. Could it turn down?

Also Dax cycles seems to be going down.

Dax strength indicator is currently in a consolidation area. I have marked the previous areas by red windows. So, don't expect higher close than 6800 during next be 1-3 weeks. Intraday highs don't matter.

Risk indicator came down as it was supposed to come.

Dax indicators 27.4.2012

In addition to pure technical view, all of the indicators point to higher high.

20 day highs vs. lows pointing up.

Intermediate Dax cycles pointing up.

Dax volume index already made a fulfilled forecast to a climb above 6800. 

I have seen arguments that the average volume has been low, but I cannot see any point in that since the volume seems to be decent.

Dax risk indicator has became quite high. Previously when this indicator has climbed above 70, there hasn't been much room for the upside. It is still expected that Dax could touch 7000 before consolidating. 

3 month's biggest gainer is Man (+20,3%) while the biggest loser is Metro (-20%). At the same time Dax is up +4%.

Currently the correlation between the stocks and index is lowering, which is a good for stock picking and diversifying. Nowadays diversifying doesn't help in a downtrends, but fortunately uptrends still offer great opportunities.

If you read between the lines, the current short term trend seems to be up (for a while...).

Dax indicators 29.3.2012

Dax futures are currently trading above 6940, which is nice with yesterday's trades. Indicators are currently very mixed depending on the time frame, so I should be careful not to take too much bearish or bullish outlook and concentrate only short term outlook.

Even some indicators are bearish mid term, it is hard to believe in any bigger correction before we get 52-week lows. Currently we are having zero lows. Another (and likely) possibility is that the stocks are currently so highly correlated, that this kind of behaviour isn't needed.

Dax Volume Index is giving a possibility to drop above 6500.

20 day highs-lows ratio is still on the bullish side.

Dax Cycles is a little bit bearish.

6974 is still an important resistance today, and if Dax manages to climb above it then climb above 7000 should bury bear's hopes (again). Although, today's low could be near 6868, but still above yesterday's low. If today is a strong up day, some of my reliable indicators will also turn from very oversold condition, thus indicating bullish Monday. We will see.

Dax indicators 28.3.2012

Yesterday's call for a rebound canceled. It is not wise to try catch a falling knife at this point. There are evidences that we will see lower lows and lower close ahead. 

Dax volume indicator trying to lead the prices down.

It is always bearish when Accumulation/Distribution falls into negative territory...

...combined with investor's reduced willingness to take risk it almost guaranteed that Dax will have lower close during next 5 days.   

Dax Cycle is trying to point down.

McClellan Summation Index is already bearish.

The most important level tomorrow is 6974 and 7050. Below those levels we remain bearish and keep 6600 as our 5 day target.

Today Dax could climb above 7000 (target 7016), but eventually fall below 6900 (target 6895).