Monday, April 30, 2012

A short term top 30.4.2012

Some of the indicators currently indicate that the investor short term risk appetite is about to reach it's maximum. So, let's see whether we will see a consolidation or a pullback.


Sunday, April 29, 2012

Trend Following update

Added few interesting stocks into trend following report, Apple, Google, Microsoft + few solar companies. Check it out. Currently the longer term trend is not favoring bulls. Apple would have long signal only above 654, so there could be more down ahead. Exxon got long signal and will stay above 85.3  and there could be some opportunities

The backtesting and forward testing results have been proven to be quite reliable.




Saturday, April 28, 2012

Dax and Hindenburg Omen

Dax had a first warning called Hindenburg Omen when the conditions were met 20.4.2012. One signal may not be much yet for a reason to sell stocks, but we need to watch the situation carefully.


Negative McClellan Oscillator


Dax indicators 27.4.2012

In addition to pure technical view, all of the indicators point to higher high.

20 day highs vs. lows pointing up.


Intermediate Dax cycles pointing up.


Dax volume index already made a fulfilled forecast to a climb above 6800. 


I have seen arguments that the average volume has been low, but I cannot see any point in that since the volume seems to be decent.


Dax risk indicator has became quite high. Previously when this indicator has climbed above 70, there hasn't been much room for the upside. It is still expected that Dax could touch 7000 before consolidating. 


3 month's biggest gainer is Man (+20,3%) while the biggest loser is Metro (-20%). At the same time Dax is up +4%.


Currently the correlation between the stocks and index is lowering, which is a good for stock picking and diversifying. Nowadays diversifying doesn't help in a downtrends, but fortunately uptrends still offer great opportunities.


If you read between the lines, the current short term trend seems to be up (for a while...).

Dax technical 27.4.2012

In a technical perspective, it looks like Dax is trying to touch 7000 or Fibonacci 6974 (78,6%). There is also intermediate declining trend line abobe 7000, thus judging bigger trend. Currently the longer term uptrend still holds confirmed with a touch to major rising trend line and major support at 6544. Additionally short term declining trend lines for Dax and RSI were broken upside. RSI and MACD are also showing some strength.


Friday, April 27, 2012

Dax volume 26.4.2012

Volume index is currently pointing to higher high, so Dax could climb above 6800 no later than next week and then we could see a consolidation.


Dax update 26.4.

The variation between stocks has diverged lately, thus giving good stock picking opportunities.


Correlation between index and stocks has been quite high and recently lowering a little bit. I hope it will lower more. If the correlation is very high, it is somehow alerting, because usually correlation rises near or during downtrends.


Risk indicator is already quite high, so there could be 1-3 days consolidation ahead.


Oversold condition easened, but we need to watch this careful.


Trading performance has been quite pleasant lately even the increased positions has caused more volatility.

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

US money flow 23.4.2012

US money flow still positive.


The areas where money flow has been positive have usually been bullish.


Monday, April 23, 2012

Sunday, April 22, 2012

Trading performance 20.4.2012

The performance of strategies have been steady even the volatility increased lately, but mainly it is due to increased position sizing.


The distribution how an individual trade has affected the total portfolio still looks promising. 


Current positions could be found here.

US money flow 20.4.2012

Positive money flow continues, thus leading index into new highs?

Dax indicators and trades 20.4.2012

Quite variation between 3 month returns from -10% to almost +30%.


20 day highs vs. lows ratio is still pointing down, but there is not much to go anymore. 


Intermediate cycle is showing normal cyclical behavior and could bottom soon. 


McClellan Summation Index has still room for the downside. 


...Although some indicators like modified RSI has been improving and showing signs for a short term market bottom. 


Risk aversion has also improved. 


Current positions include: LONG: DAX, CBK, DBK, HEI, DAI, BBZ, EVT, SNG (open new long positions on Monday for DPW, VOW3), SHORT: BEI, FME.

Friday, April 20, 2012

Thursday, April 19, 2012

Trade 19.4.2012

Looks like a good opportunity to go long with CBK, DBK, HEID.

Risk appetite 19.4.2012

According to some indicators, risk appetite is growing and could lead index into new highs.


Dax modified RSI is showing a sign of a short term market bottom.


Trades 19.4.2012


ALV, DB1, LHA, SIE, GGS, QSC, SNG, SWV: LONG sell at close / next open if new high

SHORT KBC > 5,922

US money flow 18.4.2012

US money flow positive should have an impact to global sentiment. Long Dax at open.

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Trend following 17.4.2012

Dax seems to have a (longer term) long signal only above 6927 according to my trend following model.

Trade closed

High beta closed. Now looking for a setup to short the same setup.



Dax indicators 16.4.2012

The support at 6544 managed to hold, so now we can try the opposite direction and above 6800. RSI is already making higher lows, which is a positive signal.


20 day high-low ratio is already at low level comparing to normal cyclical behavior.


Dax modified RSI is also showing sings of a bottoming process.


Also the risk appetite is growing. 


Overbought and sold already converged, so the best shorting opportunities have gone so far.


Dax volume indicator is in unison with Dax. 


Bear territory seems to end soon.



US money flow 16.4.2012

US money flow positive, could mean a little bit higher. Watch out the bullish sentiment.


Monday, April 16, 2012

Trade 16.4.2012

Risk on. High-beta long: CBK, DBK, HEID. 


US money flow 13.4.2012

US money flow positive.


Dax technical 16.4.2012

Dax is flirting with Fibonacci level 6544. So, watch out careful if it breaks and thus making the October high at 6435 act as a short term downside target. RSI and MACD are still pointing the way down.


Friday, April 13, 2012

US money flow 12.4.2012

Us money flow positive. Long signal.