Trade setup 5.3.2012

BUY: MRK (Merck KGaA) if open < previous close, profit target 3,5% or sell at close.

Dax indicators 2.3.2012

Ascending triangle (bullish) or Rising wedge (reversal/bearish) in the forming?

Break out from ascending triangle would set the upside target to 7300. However, ascending triangle would need a volume contraction, which hasn't happened at the time. Other possibility could be rising wedge, where Dax could still rise above 7100 and then fall. Anyway, we will be a little bit wiser on Monday when Dax should have two options: either gap up near 6970 and then break above 6990, or gap down and close below rising trend line and below 6900, and thus increasing the odds for a reversal.

Dax cycle has been pointing down for a while.

McClellan Summation Index has been pointing down for a while.

More companies have performed negatively during last 20 days.

Dax volume index has negative divergence with prices.

Riskier companies (TecDax, Small Cap Dax) with high beta underperformed during last week.

Trade setup 2.3.2012

BUY: SDF (K+S) if closing price < 37.336. Sell on Tuesday at open. Profit target 5% or gap-target if mondays open > 1%.

Trade setups 2.3.2012

If open < previous close, buy lower than open: ADS, BEI, BMW, DPW, profit target 3,5% calculated from open price. Sell at close.

If open > previous close, sell higher than open: LHA, profit target 2,5% calculated from open price. Sell at close. 

Dax technicals 1.3.2010

Dax has a important resistance at 6990. Now when S&P500 is facing resistance, Dax hasn't been able to make higher high since 21.2.2012. MACD and RSI diverge negatively from index.

More and more stocks are making lower lows and 20 day lows.

38% of the stocks are currently performing better than the index. However, decline of this ratio is actually bullish for the index, even it also indicates upcoming short term top.

Dax cycles indicator has been making lower lows for a while.

McClellan Summation Index has been making lower lows for a while.

15 companies are less than -10% from their 52 week highs while just 1 company is less than 10% from it's 52 week low.

Dax volume index has still negative divergence with prices. Should this be corrected soon or will it continue to diverge more?

Prices seem to stay high without any good reason or bad news to sell. In despite of that Greece 1 year bond yield is at the absurd level 951% and the country has been downgraded to selective default. Officials still argue no to default?

US money flow 1.3.2012

US cumulative money flow still on a negative side. During last 10 days, there's been only 4 days with positive money flow.

Yet, S&P 500 is seemingly flirting with it's longer term resistance at 1376,1. Upper resistance lies on Fibonacci level 1381,5. 

It seems that big players are not believing for further upside and have been (or started) selling near important resistance. 

US technical / money flow 29.2.2012

Negative money flow. Let's see how the situation developes.

Taking into account that S&P500 has hit it's resistance at 1376.1 (May's high) and is trying to break down below the rising trend line, the situation for the next weeks seems bearish.