Dax week 37

Will we see all time high soon? The chart is beginning to give an indication of higher high level if the rest of the week continues to advance. Currently we are trying to break above 7400, which would lead to 8000.

McClellan Summation Index indicates that the trend is up.

50 day cycle indicates that the trend is up.

I would like to see 100% of Dax stocks abobe their 50 day moving average before intermediate term topping process.

Only concern is that the current shorter term risk cycle isn't behaving normally, although the current situation isn't normal either. Anyway, market has been pricing QE3 for a while and when we got it, Dax could pullback soon -2-5 %.

Dax 25.7.2012

Technical indicators are currently a little bit bearish. MACD lines have crossed downwards and RSI reading is below 50. However, 200 days moving average has served as a support during whole July. 6544 Fibonacci level broke down violently and even Dax is flirting with it's SMA(200) we can still expect 6242 level to be touched.

Shorter term cycle indicator is down and investors are getting rid of riskier assets and stocks.

McClellan Summation Index is also pointing down.

50 day cycle indicator lines also crossed downwards and normally this has meant more down ahead.

US investors seem to have no clue whether to invest or not.

Dax indicators and trades 20.4.2012

Quite variation between 3 month returns from -10% to almost +30%.

20 day highs vs. lows ratio is still pointing down, but there is not much to go anymore. 

Intermediate cycle is showing normal cyclical behavior and could bottom soon. 

McClellan Summation Index has still room for the downside. 

...Although some indicators like modified RSI has been improving and showing signs for a short term market bottom. 

Risk aversion has also improved. 

Current positions include: LONG: DAX, CBK, DBK, HEI, DAI, BBZ, EVT, SNG (open new long positions on Monday for DPW, VOW3), SHORT: BEI, FME.

Dax indicators 4.4.2012

Dax closed with 30 declining stocks measured from close and 30 declining measured from open. Averagely there are about 4 similar cases during year. Statistically this hasn't been very good sign for the next day. There is 86% chance (average -1.86%) that we close lower than 6784. 6.3.2012 we closed only 0,57% higher, so if the day will be up, the potential is limited. Yesterday's trading signals suggested to short FRE and FME, because usually high beta stocks lead up if we will see strong rebound.

Dax hourly chart looks bullish with DMIs at the extreme levels, RSI and MACD going to point up.

However, in a longer perspective Volume Index has dropped more aggressively than the prices...

...and here you can see how the prices behave when Volume Index has fresh 20 day low.

Investor risk appetite has been dropping since the middle of March.

Stocks have broken their 50 day moving average quite quickly.

20 day performance still seems surprisingly positive, but it is expected to change. 

Dax cycle is going down. Would it finish the down cycle this time? 

McClellan Summation Index is also in a downtrend.

Dax RSI indicator indicates that the index has had stronger downside momentum than the actual stocks. According to my studies, we could have a tradable market bottom for longer term swing traders within a month.

Dax should have upper target near 6870-6880, but it would be great opportunity to add some short positions. The downside target could be 6750, and pessimistic target 6658.

Dax indicators 2.4.2012

Yesterday was a very bullish day. We saw only 4 stocks declining from their opening.

We got 6 fresh 52 week highs with ADS, BEI, DPW, HEN3, LIN, MAN, MRKK. 

16 stocks are less than -10% from their 52 week highs and averagely gain from 52 week low is 42,1 %.

Looking at 3 month performance we notice that thr are already few stocks trading on the negative side.

Dax cycles is still anticipating more down ahead...

...and so does McClellan Summation Index.

Dax Volume Index doesn't have any meaningful divergence with prices.

Technically Dax can climb to touch the declining trend line at 6129. Even if it does that, there is still negative divergence with MACD and RSI. Breaking above the trend line should also break the divergences.

Dax indicators 20.3.2012

Dax still has a negative divergence with RSI and MACD, which could make momentum investors cautious. Break below 6970 would confirm the divergence and lead Dax to 6600. If Dax manages to stay high, 7400 maintains as an intermediate target.

Volume index has been rising and almost climbed above July highs. We need to watch this carefully for a hint of level 7400 for Dax.

Overbought - oversold indicator resisted it's normal inertia which would have taken Dax to lower levels. Now we are back in uptrend.

 Dax 20 day highs vs. lows also indicates uptrend.

McClellan Summation Index indicates uptrend.

The only negative indication is investor beta, which is currently indicating risk aversion even it is still above positive level 50.

Overview: We haven't had any major negative news issue lately, so remain cautiously positive and bullish biased.

Dax indicators 15.3.2012

I am stucked with these few indicators, which have been very reliable lately.

Volume Index reached new highs again, which gives over 70% probability for continuation.

Here you can see the bullish and bearish scenarios for Volume Index.

McClellan Summation Index is indicating uptrend.

Dax technicals 13.3.2012

A strong up day like this wouldn't leave nothing to imagination. The interest rates are being kept low thus asset inflation shall continue.

McClellan Summation Index is in an uptrend again.

Volume index has confirmed the price action even it is still lagging.

Dax cycles is pointing lower, but will it continue.

The trend following system went long S&P500 above 1391,69.

Dax technicals 13.3.2012

Buyers have calmed, but sellers are not very enthusiastic. Overbought condition has been easening lately, but we can still see no sellers. However, topping process may last months. 

McClellan Summation Index is trying to return into uptrend. That's why yesterday's trade was to buy low beta stocks.

In a technical perspective, Dax is facing heavy resistance at 6976-6990. This is a third time to test this resistance. If we get some really surprising positive news and get above the resistance, Dax could climb to 7400. If it fails and falls below 6621, then the low target should be around 6270-6300.

Dax indicators 9.3.2012

Dax McClellan Summation Index is still in a downtrend.

Overbought / sold condition is still in an extreme condition, but trying to get back into equilibrium.

Volume index is ranging and still in negative divergence with price index.