Tomorrow's rebound

I missed the TecDax trade, but got out from all the open positions.

Tomorrow looks very promising for intra day long index or high beta stock trade. Beta Indicator felt below 50, which is bearish. Although, usually we have seen a rebound at this level, so the probability that tomorrow's close > today's close is 70%. The probability that tomorrow's close > tomorrow's open is even higher, 80%.

I will add some other indicators later.

Dax indicators 2.3.2012

Ascending triangle (bullish) or Rising wedge (reversal/bearish) in the forming?

Break out from ascending triangle would set the upside target to 7300. However, ascending triangle would need a volume contraction, which hasn't happened at the time. Other possibility could be rising wedge, where Dax could still rise above 7100 and then fall. Anyway, we will be a little bit wiser on Monday when Dax should have two options: either gap up near 6970 and then break above 6990, or gap down and close below rising trend line and below 6900, and thus increasing the odds for a reversal.

Dax cycle has been pointing down for a while.

McClellan Summation Index has been pointing down for a while.

More companies have performed negatively during last 20 days.

Dax volume index has negative divergence with prices.

Riskier companies (TecDax, Small Cap Dax) with high beta underperformed during last week.

Sentiment comparison Germany vs. US

Sector comparison between Dax indexes and US indexes reveals that the continents differ in a manner of chasing beta.

During last 5 days the Small Caps and Technologies clearly outperformed in the US.

In Germany the best performing sectors were actually Middle Caps and Blue Chips.

Still it is obvious that the US is more bullish than Europe.