Dax indicators 2.4.2012

Yesterday was a very bullish day. We saw only 4 stocks declining from their opening.

We got 6 fresh 52 week highs with ADS, BEI, DPW, HEN3, LIN, MAN, MRKK. 

16 stocks are less than -10% from their 52 week highs and averagely gain from 52 week low is 42,1 %.

Looking at 3 month performance we notice that thr are already few stocks trading on the negative side.

Dax cycles is still anticipating more down ahead...

...and so does McClellan Summation Index.

Dax Volume Index doesn't have any meaningful divergence with prices.

Technically Dax can climb to touch the declining trend line at 6129. Even if it does that, there is still negative divergence with MACD and RSI. Breaking above the trend line should also break the divergences.

Dax indicators 29.3.2012

Dax futures are currently trading above 6940, which is nice with yesterday's trades. Indicators are currently very mixed depending on the time frame, so I should be careful not to take too much bearish or bullish outlook and concentrate only short term outlook.

Even some indicators are bearish mid term, it is hard to believe in any bigger correction before we get 52-week lows. Currently we are having zero lows. Another (and likely) possibility is that the stocks are currently so highly correlated, that this kind of behaviour isn't needed.

Dax Volume Index is giving a possibility to drop above 6500.

20 day highs-lows ratio is still on the bullish side.

Dax Cycles is a little bit bearish.

6974 is still an important resistance today, and if Dax manages to climb above it then climb above 7000 should bury bear's hopes (again). Although, today's low could be near 6868, but still above yesterday's low. If today is a strong up day, some of my reliable indicators will also turn from very oversold condition, thus indicating bullish Monday. We will see.

Dax indicators 27.3.2012

Dax still has negative divergence with indicators. Even the divegences haven't been working out lately, this should be treated with cautious.

Dax had two 52 week highs, which is a bullish signal. 

20 day cycle seems cautiously positive, even the latest performance hasn't been clear.

Dax Cycle Indicator is based on 2 month price behaviour. Nor does this indicator gives clear direction. 

Dax Volume Index has lately acted in unison with prices.

Today's index setup will be to close the long position with index at 7170 or near close and then take short position for two days.

Dax technicals 1.3.2010

Dax has a important resistance at 6990. Now when S&P500 is facing resistance, Dax hasn't been able to make higher high since 21.2.2012. MACD and RSI diverge negatively from index.

More and more stocks are making lower lows and 20 day lows.

38% of the stocks are currently performing better than the index. However, decline of this ratio is actually bullish for the index, even it also indicates upcoming short term top.

Dax cycles indicator has been making lower lows for a while.

McClellan Summation Index has been making lower lows for a while.

15 companies are less than -10% from their 52 week highs while just 1 company is less than 10% from it's 52 week low.

Dax volume index has still negative divergence with prices. Should this be corrected soon or will it continue to diverge more?

Prices seem to stay high without any good reason or bad news to sell. In despite of that Greece 1 year bond yield is at the absurd level 951% and the country has been downgraded to selective default. Officials still argue no to default?

Dax statistics 20.2.2012

Not much to say, but wait

Long term view is bullish as long as stocks are making new highs. We haven't seen new lows for a while. 

Long term bullish view can be changed into bearish if we  see new lows in a future, but there are only few stocks near their 52-week lows. Averagely Dax stocks have risen 46.41% from their lowest levels. Averagely stocks are -15.16% from their highest points. There are 15 stocks less than -7% from their highs.

Blue chips have been leading the latest advance in stocks. Technology and small caps have been lagging.

So far investors have pushed all the Dax stocks above their 50 day moving averages. This kind of condition hasn't been very common in the history.

Oversold condition is literally at zero, even the overbought condition has loosened a bit.

McClellan Summation Index again started to point higher levels after temporary decline.

Dax Volume Index has been lagging during the whole rally, which indicates investors haven't totally been interested to participate.

Global stock market looks clearly that US has been leading the rally up. Nasdaq and S&P500 are already on the positive track annually while others are lagging. We can at least conclude that FED programs are doing well.

I have been calling a top many times lately, and now I cannot do anything but wait. There are few options how the overbought condition usually fades away: condsolidation, small pullback, correction.

Dax stock performance overview

9 stocks less than -10% from 52 week highs and 2 stocks less than +10% from 52 week lows.

30.1.12	CURRENT	52-W HIGH	52-W LOW	FROM HIGH	FROM LOW
Adidas	55.50	57.62	41.76	-3.68 %	32.91 %
Allianz	83.36	104.17	56.16	-19.98 %	48.43 %
Basf	59.81	69.80	42.19	-14.31 %	41.76 %
Bayer	53.03	59.44	35.36	-10.78 %	49.97 %
Beiersdorf	46.13	46.50	38.26	-0.80 %	20.57 %
BMW	64.55	73.85	43.49	-12.59 %	48.42 %
Commerzbank	1.81	6.47	1.12	-72.02 %	61.61 %
Daimler	42.35	55.15	29.01	-23.20 %	45.98 %
Deutsche Bank	32.26	47.81	20.78	-32.53 %	55.25 %
Deutsche Boerse	44.57	60.18	35.65	-25.94 %	25.02 %
Lufthansa	10.55	15.81	8.25	-33.27 %	27.88 %
Deutsche Post	12.54	13.33	8.90	-5.93 %	40.90 %
Deutsche Telekom	8.72	10.94	7.88	-20.29 %	10.66 %
E.ON	16.19	23.38	12.50	-30.75 %	29.52 %
Fresenius	77.47	78.99	58.80	-1.92 %	31.75 %
Fresenius Medical Care	54.30	55.80	42.56	-2.69 %	27.58 %
Henkel	47.46	50.15	36.52	-5.36 %	29.96 %
Infineon Techno	6.90	8.31	4.89	-16.97 %	41.10 %
K+S	36.40	57.76	33.25	-36.98 %	9.47 %
Linde	118.25	127.80	94.63	-7.47 %	24.96 %
Man	79.36	96.75	50.78	-17.97 %	56.28 %
Merck	80.17	80.18	55.92	-0.01 %	43.37 %
Metro	29.15	54.38	26.77	-46.40 %	8.89 %
Munich Rueckvers	99.43	119.16	77.80	-16.56 %	27.80 %
RWE	29.15	49.95	21.22	-41.64 %	37.37 %
Heidelberg Cement	37.08	53.72	23.92	-30.98 %	55.02 %
SAP	45.87	46.04	32.88	-0.37 %	39.51 %
Siemens	72.26	95.54	59.72	-24.37 %	21.00 %
Thyssenkrupp	21.11	35.43	16.31	-40.42 %	29.43 %
Volkswagen	136.80	152.20	86.40	-10.12 %	58.33 %
DAX	6444.45	7600.41	4965.80	-15.21 %	29.78 %

5 stocks with negative 20 day performance in line with the weakened upside momentum.