Dax technical 27.4.2012

In a technical perspective, it looks like Dax is trying to touch 7000 or Fibonacci 6974 (78,6%). There is also intermediate declining trend line abobe 7000, thus judging bigger trend. Currently the longer term uptrend still holds confirmed with a touch to major rising trend line and major support at 6544. Additionally short term declining trend lines for Dax and RSI were broken upside. RSI and MACD are also showing some strength.

Dax indicators 16.4.2012

The support at 6544 managed to hold, so now we can try the opposite direction and above 6800. RSI is already making higher lows, which is a positive signal.

20 day high-low ratio is already at low level comparing to normal cyclical behavior.

Dax modified RSI is also showing sings of a bottoming process.

Also the risk appetite is growing. 

Overbought and sold already converged, so the best shorting opportunities have gone so far.

Dax volume indicator is in unison with Dax. 

Bear territory seems to end soon.

Dax indicators 20.3.2012

Dax still has a negative divergence with RSI and MACD, which could make momentum investors cautious. Break below 6970 would confirm the divergence and lead Dax to 6600. If Dax manages to stay high, 7400 maintains as an intermediate target.

Volume index has been rising and almost climbed above July highs. We need to watch this carefully for a hint of level 7400 for Dax.

Overbought - oversold indicator resisted it's normal inertia which would have taken Dax to lower levels. Now we are back in uptrend.

 Dax 20 day highs vs. lows also indicates uptrend.

McClellan Summation Index indicates uptrend.

The only negative indication is investor beta, which is currently indicating risk aversion even it is still above positive level 50.

Overview: We haven't had any major negative news issue lately, so remain cautiously positive and bullish biased.

Dax and global indexes

A short peak to global indexes and technicals


From the table below you can find which of the markets and asset classes are above or below their simple 200 days moving averages, which 20 days moving averages are below 200 days averages and which markets have positive MACD(12,26,9).

Dow Jones Industrial Average and France's CAC40 are the first weak indexes. Japan's Nikkei 225, Russia's RTS, Taiwan's TSEC and Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite turned below their 200 days moving averages.

	MACD		SMA 200		20 vs. 200
	d_1	d_2	d_1	d_2	d_1	d_2
Goldsilves (XAU)	-1	1	-1	-1	-1	-1
Oil (OIX)	1	1	1	1	1	1
natgas (UNG)	1	1	-1	-1	-1	-1
agric (DBA)	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1
S&P500	1	1	1	1	1	1
Dow Jones	-1	1	1	1	1	1
Nasdaq	1	1	1	1	1	1
Russell2000	1	1	1	1	1	1
Japan	1	1	-1	-1	-1	-1
Germany	1	1	1	1	1	1
Finland	1	1	1	1	-1	-1
UK	1	1	1	1	1	1
France	-1	1	1	1	-1	-1
Russia	1	1	-1	1	-1	-1
Brazil	1	1	1	1	1	1
India	1	1	1	1	-1	-1
Hang Seng	1	1	1	1	-1	-1
SSEC	1	1	-1	-1	-1	-1
Korea	1	1	1	1	-1	-1
Taiwan	1	1	-1	1	-1	-1
Turkey	1	1	1	1	-1	-1
Malesia	1	1	1	1	1	1
Emerging Mkts (EEM)	1	1	1	1	1	1

Below, I have calculated the subtraction of positive and negative MACDs from the above table, which gives 16 positive and 2 negative. You can see how this global bullishness usually affects to Dax index. So, the current bullishness has been historical when comparing different indexes and seeing their MACDs positive lately.

MACD short term view

In a longer term of view, you can see that the volatility of this index has been growing. In the other words,  the indexes and asset classes seem to have stronger correlation.

MACD long term view

Dax sentiment week 39

Positive signs

We have seen some positive signs lately on last days. Opening gap on thursday, statistically positive day on Friday, and continuation of these bullish patterns on Monday. On Monday, we already saw the first crossover of 50 day moving average when Fresenius Medical Care reached it's 20-day high. After 29.7. all Dax stocks have traded below 50-day moving average.

Although, Beiersdorf and Fresenius SE dropped to new 20-day lows, the technical signs have been more positive than negative. 30 percent of Dax stocks are already above their 20-day highs, which seems bullish for short term.

Indicator for measuring oversold - and bought is still in quite extreme condition, since buying is yet lagging. The expectation is, that the condition will recover to the balance. When green buying will began to show more positive development, the price index (Dax) could quite quickly recover to higher levels. Anyway, we still need a few positive news to have the impact.

Seasonality is bullish biased for the end of the year. Last four weeks have been negative biased since 1990, and the probability for positive week has been about 40%. The seasonality for the rest of the year gives hope for bullish investors.

The average returns have been more positive for the rest of the year.

The volume index, based on invidual stock volumes, seems to be syncronised with price index. As you can see from the aboce graph, volume index began to show negative divergence already in last May making lower highs and lower lows. At the same time the price index (Dax) was trading in a range. Recently the volume index hasn't dropped below the level of June 2009.

Technical indicators are showing positive divergence for short term, especially RSI. Daily chart gave positive signals last thursday (exhaustion gap), friday (hammer candlestick), and monday (bullish continuation). However, long term picture is negative because of negative and downtrending TRIX and MACD.

Dax long term update

Dax long term picture negative