Sunday, March 4, 2012

Dax indicators 2.3.2012

Ascending triangle (bullish) or Rising wedge (reversal/bearish) in the forming?

Break out from ascending triangle would set the upside target to 7300. However, ascending triangle would need a volume contraction, which hasn't happened at the time. Other possibility could be rising wedge, where Dax could still rise above 7100 and then fall. Anyway, we will be a little bit wiser on Monday when Dax should have two options: either gap up near 6970 and then break above 6990, or gap down and close below rising trend line and below 6900, and thus increasing the odds for a reversal.

Dax cycle has been pointing down for a while.

McClellan Summation Index has been pointing down for a while.

More companies have performed negatively during last 20 days.

Dax volume index has negative divergence with prices.

Riskier companies (TecDax, Small Cap Dax) with high beta underperformed during last week.