Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Dax sentiment 10.1.2012

The volume has been extraordinary low. Usually volume drops at these levels only during holidays. So, no-one wants to do anything. Big investors are not willing to sell nor buy. However, on Wednesday we saw volume spiking above it's 10 day EMA.

... but negative TRIN reveals that most of the volume was allocated on declining stocks.

...and it is a little bit annoying that stocks are behaving like this would be a market bottom. Previous times this condition has implied consolidation or decline ahead.

Overview: Gap up + positive daily candle + volume accumulation (even the volume has been low) + negative TRIN = bearish sign? We have seen gap ups lately, but none of them has been runaway gap. Taking into consideration that there will be heavy resistance at 6170-6190 and under these conditions gap up could mean exhaustion gap.

Seems like Dax would need to go lower first if we want to break up. Only very positive news from the economy would give Dax enough interest to go upper levels near 6400.