Dax 25.7.2012

Technical indicators are currently a little bit bearish. MACD lines have crossed downwards and RSI reading is below 50. However, 200 days moving average has served as a support during whole July. 6544 Fibonacci level broke down violently and even Dax is flirting with it's SMA(200) we can still expect 6242 level to be touched.

Shorter term cycle indicator is down and investors are getting rid of riskier assets and stocks.

McClellan Summation Index is also pointing down.

50 day cycle indicator lines also crossed downwards and normally this has meant more down ahead.

US investors seem to have no clue whether to invest or not.

Dax indicators 16.4.2012

The support at 6544 managed to hold, so now we can try the opposite direction and above 6800. RSI is already making higher lows, which is a positive signal.

20 day high-low ratio is already at low level comparing to normal cyclical behavior.

Dax modified RSI is also showing sings of a bottoming process.

Also the risk appetite is growing. 

Overbought and sold already converged, so the best shorting opportunities have gone so far.

Dax volume indicator is in unison with Dax. 

Bear territory seems to end soon.

Dax indicators 4.4.2012

Dax closed with 30 declining stocks measured from close and 30 declining measured from open. Averagely there are about 4 similar cases during year. Statistically this hasn't been very good sign for the next day. There is 86% chance (average -1.86%) that we close lower than 6784. 6.3.2012 we closed only 0,57% higher, so if the day will be up, the potential is limited. Yesterday's trading signals suggested to short FRE and FME, because usually high beta stocks lead up if we will see strong rebound.

Dax hourly chart looks bullish with DMIs at the extreme levels, RSI and MACD going to point up.

However, in a longer perspective Volume Index has dropped more aggressively than the prices...

...and here you can see how the prices behave when Volume Index has fresh 20 day low.

Investor risk appetite has been dropping since the middle of March.

Stocks have broken their 50 day moving average quite quickly.

20 day performance still seems surprisingly positive, but it is expected to change. 

Dax cycle is going down. Would it finish the down cycle this time? 

McClellan Summation Index is also in a downtrend.

Dax RSI indicator indicates that the index has had stronger downside momentum than the actual stocks. According to my studies, we could have a tradable market bottom for longer term swing traders within a month.

Dax should have upper target near 6870-6880, but it would be great opportunity to add some short positions. The downside target could be 6750, and pessimistic target 6658.

Dax bullish indicators 16.3.2012

Dax Cycle Indicator is again pointing up.

20 day highs vs. lows is on a positive side, which is a bullish sign.

We have had only 52 week highs since last December, which is an indication of "healthy" bull market.

Dax and global indexes

A short peak to global indexes and technicals


From the table below you can find which of the markets and asset classes are above or below their simple 200 days moving averages, which 20 days moving averages are below 200 days averages and which markets have positive MACD(12,26,9).

Dow Jones Industrial Average and France's CAC40 are the first weak indexes. Japan's Nikkei 225, Russia's RTS, Taiwan's TSEC and Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite turned below their 200 days moving averages.

	MACD		SMA 200		20 vs. 200
	d_1	d_2	d_1	d_2	d_1	d_2
Goldsilves (XAU)	-1	1	-1	-1	-1	-1
Oil (OIX)	1	1	1	1	1	1
natgas (UNG)	1	1	-1	-1	-1	-1
agric (DBA)	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1
S&P500	1	1	1	1	1	1
Dow Jones	-1	1	1	1	1	1
Nasdaq	1	1	1	1	1	1
Russell2000	1	1	1	1	1	1
Japan	1	1	-1	-1	-1	-1
Germany	1	1	1	1	1	1
Finland	1	1	1	1	-1	-1
UK	1	1	1	1	1	1
France	-1	1	1	1	-1	-1
Russia	1	1	-1	1	-1	-1
Brazil	1	1	1	1	1	1
India	1	1	1	1	-1	-1
Hang Seng	1	1	1	1	-1	-1
SSEC	1	1	-1	-1	-1	-1
Korea	1	1	1	1	-1	-1
Taiwan	1	1	-1	1	-1	-1
Turkey	1	1	1	1	-1	-1
Malesia	1	1	1	1	1	1
Emerging Mkts (EEM)	1	1	1	1	1	1

Below, I have calculated the subtraction of positive and negative MACDs from the above table, which gives 16 positive and 2 negative. You can see how this global bullishness usually affects to Dax index. So, the current bullishness has been historical when comparing different indexes and seeing their MACDs positive lately.

MACD short term view

In a longer term of view, you can see that the volatility of this index has been growing. In the other words,  the indexes and asset classes seem to have stronger correlation.

MACD long term view