Dax statistics 20.2.2012

Not much to say, but wait

Long term view is bullish as long as stocks are making new highs. We haven't seen new lows for a while. 

Long term bullish view can be changed into bearish if we  see new lows in a future, but there are only few stocks near their 52-week lows. Averagely Dax stocks have risen 46.41% from their lowest levels. Averagely stocks are -15.16% from their highest points. There are 15 stocks less than -7% from their highs.

Blue chips have been leading the latest advance in stocks. Technology and small caps have been lagging.

So far investors have pushed all the Dax stocks above their 50 day moving averages. This kind of condition hasn't been very common in the history.

Oversold condition is literally at zero, even the overbought condition has loosened a bit.

McClellan Summation Index again started to point higher levels after temporary decline.

Dax Volume Index has been lagging during the whole rally, which indicates investors haven't totally been interested to participate.

Global stock market looks clearly that US has been leading the rally up. Nasdaq and S&P500 are already on the positive track annually while others are lagging. We can at least conclude that FED programs are doing well.

I have been calling a top many times lately, and now I cannot do anything but wait. There are few options how the overbought condition usually fades away: condsolidation, small pullback, correction.

Dax and global indexes

A short peak to global indexes and technicals


From the table below you can find which of the markets and asset classes are above or below their simple 200 days moving averages, which 20 days moving averages are below 200 days averages and which markets have positive MACD(12,26,9).

Dow Jones Industrial Average and France's CAC40 are the first weak indexes. Japan's Nikkei 225, Russia's RTS, Taiwan's TSEC and Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite turned below their 200 days moving averages.

	MACD		SMA 200		20 vs. 200
	d_1	d_2	d_1	d_2	d_1	d_2
Goldsilves (XAU)	-1	1	-1	-1	-1	-1
Oil (OIX)	1	1	1	1	1	1
natgas (UNG)	1	1	-1	-1	-1	-1
agric (DBA)	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1
S&P500	1	1	1	1	1	1
Dow Jones	-1	1	1	1	1	1
Nasdaq	1	1	1	1	1	1
Russell2000	1	1	1	1	1	1
Japan	1	1	-1	-1	-1	-1
Germany	1	1	1	1	1	1
Finland	1	1	1	1	-1	-1
UK	1	1	1	1	1	1
France	-1	1	1	1	-1	-1
Russia	1	1	-1	1	-1	-1
Brazil	1	1	1	1	1	1
India	1	1	1	1	-1	-1
Hang Seng	1	1	1	1	-1	-1
SSEC	1	1	-1	-1	-1	-1
Korea	1	1	1	1	-1	-1
Taiwan	1	1	-1	1	-1	-1
Turkey	1	1	1	1	-1	-1
Malesia	1	1	1	1	1	1
Emerging Mkts (EEM)	1	1	1	1	1	1

Below, I have calculated the subtraction of positive and negative MACDs from the above table, which gives 16 positive and 2 negative. You can see how this global bullishness usually affects to Dax index. So, the current bullishness has been historical when comparing different indexes and seeing their MACDs positive lately.

MACD short term view

In a longer term of view, you can see that the volatility of this index has been growing. In the other words,  the indexes and asset classes seem to have stronger correlation.

MACD long term view