Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts

Monday, February 13, 2012

Dax and global indexes

A short peak to global indexes and technicals


From the table below you can find which of the markets and asset classes are above or below their simple 200 days moving averages, which 20 days moving averages are below 200 days averages and which markets have positive MACD(12,26,9).

Dow Jones Industrial Average and France's CAC40 are the first weak indexes. Japan's Nikkei 225, Russia's RTS, Taiwan's TSEC and Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite turned below their 200 days moving averages.



MACD SMA 200 20 vs. 200
d_1 d_2 d_1 d_2 d_1 d_2
Goldsilves (XAU) -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1
Oil (OIX) 1 1 1 1 1 1
natgas (UNG) 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1
agric (DBA) -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
S&P500 1 1 1 1 1 1
Dow Jones -1 1 1 1 1 1
Nasdaq 1 1 1 1 1 1
Russell2000 1 1 1 1 1 1
Japan 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1
Germany 1 1 1 1 1 1
Finland 1 1 1 1 -1 -1
UK 1 1 1 1 1 1
France -1 1 1 1 -1 -1
Russia 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1
Brazil 1 1 1 1 1 1
India 1 1 1 1 -1 -1
Hang Seng 1 1 1 1 -1 -1
SSEC 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1
Korea 1 1 1 1 -1 -1
Taiwan 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1
Turkey 1 1 1 1 -1 -1
Malesia 1 1 1 1 1 1
Emerging Mkts (EEM) 1 1 1 1 1 1



Below, I have calculated the subtraction of positive and negative MACDs from the above table, which gives 16 positive and 2 negative. You can see how this global bullishness usually affects to Dax index. So, the current bullishness has been historical when comparing different indexes and seeing their MACDs positive lately.

MACD short term view

In a longer term of view, you can see that the volatility of this index has been growing. In the other words,  the indexes and asset classes seem to have stronger correlation.

MACD long term view




Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Gap statistics for Dax (current day open to close)

My latest gap statistics was calculated how the next day after big opening gap has been performing. However, it seems that today there will be big opening gap, so here's some statistics how the current day might perform from open to close.

Today's gap will be somewhere between 2,5% - 3%. With volume increase, this will be more likely a run away gap.


Without volume increase









gap up positive day average % stdev max min
3,00 % 100,00 % 1,08 % 1,46 % 3,67 % 0,24 %
2,50 % 83,33 % 0,74 % 1,11 % 3,67 % -0,68 %
2,00 % 66,67 % 0,49 % 2,86 % 9,06 % -7,07 %
1,50 % 63,46 % 0,29 % 2,28 % 9,06 % -7,07 %
1,00 % 64,63 % 0,13 % 1,71 % 9,06 % -7,07 %
0,50 % 62,01 % 0,14 % 1,41 % 9,28 % -7,07 %
0,00 % 58,23 % 0,15 % 1,32 % 9,28 % -7,07 %






With volume increase above 10 day average







gap up positive day average % stdev max min
3,00 % 100,00 % 1,96 % 2,42 % 3,67 % 0,25 %
2,50 % 100,00 % 1,25 % 1,42 % 3,67 % 0,25 %
2,00 % 87,50 % 1,35 % 4,47 % 9,06 % -7,07 %
1,50 % 75,00 % 1,12 % 3,72 % 9,06 % -7,07 %
1,00 % 60,00 % 0,18 % 3,26 % 9,06 % -7,07 %
0,50 % 60,00 % 0,39 % 2,60 % 9,28 % -7,07 %
0,00 % 52,49 % 0,04 % 1,89 % 9,28 % -7,07 %