Dax week 34

Dax seems to turn on the bears side. Closing below declining trend line isn't good in this situation. On a weekly chart Dax 6594 seems to be the downside target. Stochastics indicator already gave us a sell sign.

Short term trend is down according to risk behavior. This could mean few down days, then followed by a rebound and then more down.

Longer term trend indicator also gave us a sell sign. 

The mood became bearish, so let's see if there will be some kind of a topping process or a pullback. September has, by the way, been one of the most bearish months in a year. A healthy pullback and Fed announcement of QE3 seems to be the name of the game.

Dax week 33

Dax finished the week above the declining trend line, which we have been watching closely. Stochastics is indicating overbought condition which is not yet a selling sign. The condition could easily last 1-10 weeks.

On a daily basis, technical break-out above the longer term declining trend line was strong and without volume surge. Therefore the break out should not be treated an exhaustion and we will see higher high during next week.

It is expected that all the Dax stocks would climb above their 50 day moving average before intermediate term market top.

McClellan Summation Index is in a strong uptrend.  

Risk behavior has been declining even the index has been rising, so risk appetite should grow next week and lead stocks higher.

Stocks are highly correlated, so the investors haven't been picking the "right" stocks but only following the market trend.

It is obvious that Dax is trying to reach above March high and above 7200.

Dax indicators, regular update

Check out the indicators, where most of them are almost at their highest levels. Still they are pointing up, but soon topping?

Dax technical 6.8.2012

On a weekly candles Dax is soon approaching it's major resistance near 7000 where lies a declining trend line drawn from last year's peak. Additionally, stochastics is indicating an overbought condition. If the market wants to stay positive we could consolidate at these levels or at least the upside potential should be limited?

Dax 25.7.2012

Technical indicators are currently a little bit bearish. MACD lines have crossed downwards and RSI reading is below 50. However, 200 days moving average has served as a support during whole July. 6544 Fibonacci level broke down violently and even Dax is flirting with it's SMA(200) we can still expect 6242 level to be touched.

Shorter term cycle indicator is down and investors are getting rid of riskier assets and stocks.

McClellan Summation Index is also pointing down.

50 day cycle indicator lines also crossed downwards and normally this has meant more down ahead.

US investors seem to have no clue whether to invest or not.

Dax trend and rebound 23.7.2012

Seems like the risk appetite is about to decrease as expected. Chasing high beta doesn't usually last long.

Anyway, longer term trend still seems to point up.

Stock correlation is at unpleasant high level, so diversification won't help now because most of the stocks are moving into same direction.

We already have had a quite strong pullback. It would be great opportunity for a rebound tomorrow.

Dax and risk 19.7.2012

It is highly probable that we will see some kind of consolidation during next 1-5 days. Investors have been chasing high beta so intensively, that the risk cycle has already been topping and thus not letting much room for the upside.