Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Dax sentiment week 42

Higher close ahead

Dax has traveled couple of weeks and tried to break-up through 6000. Anyway, the technical upside target has remain the same even the road has been quite choppy.

One of the most reliable indicators for short term cycles has been overbought/sold indicator calculated from invidual stocks. The indicator and the inertia didn't fail when the equilibrium was reached, and the index surged like it was expected to do. 

Cycles indicator has surged to positive level, which is short term bullish signal.

Dax TRIN indicator has been peaking high numbers which indicates contrarians aggressive buying.

 Dax Volume index made higher high compared to the beginning of 2010. Thus, it is expected the index to close also higher than 6048.

20 day relative performance of individual stocks compared to index has also decreased to below 40%, which was expected. If this is a rebound, this ratio should start to surge around 30%. Then it is time to be less aggressive bull.

Overall, the market psychology still works as it should. Buy when everyone is selling, but try to buy at the bottom. And sell at the top. Now we are waiting the top.