During this week Dax has dropped more than -15% from previous week's high.
In history we have seen such drops mostly in bear markets, but there have been few cases also during bull market as you can see from a picture above.
I wanted to find out if bulls have had any edge following this kind of crazy weeks.
Statistically next week's have been looking like following for bulls:
The probability for rebound is not very promising even the averages and medians seem very high. If see any rebound, we should mostly expect it during the next 3 weeks. After 3 weeks, the bulls have lost the edge.
Next we want to know where the next week's high have been according to this week's close.
The same statistics for low compared to this week's close.
Statistics for possible lower low:
According to history, lower low has only 38,1% succeed rate. It shouldn't surprise to see strong rebound, but it looks like very volatile next week. I would buy speculative longs from these levels.
In history we have seen such drops mostly in bear markets, but there have been few cases also during bull market as you can see from a picture above.
I wanted to find out if bulls have had any edge following this kind of crazy weeks.
Statistically next week's have been looking like following for bulls:
| 1 week | 2 week | 3 week | 4 week | |
| median | -0,99 % | 4,32 % | 6,37 % | 5,06 % |
| average | 1,99 % | 2,84 % | 4,59 % | 3,88 % |
| probability | 47,62 % | 61,90 % | 76,19 % | 61,90 % |
| max | 16,12 % | 18,50 % | 22,12 % | 21,40 % |
| min | -10,16 % | -12,05 % | -17,25 % | -22,12 % |
The probability for rebound is not very promising even the averages and medians seem very high. If see any rebound, we should mostly expect it during the next 3 weeks. After 3 weeks, the bulls have lost the edge.
Next we want to know where the next week's high have been according to this week's close.
| high | |
| median | 6,31 % |
| average | 7,58 % |
| probability | 95,24 % |
| max | 18,47 % |
| min | -0,28 % |
The same statistics for low compared to this week's close.
| low | |
| median | -4,67 % |
| average | -4,71 % |
| probability | 85,71 % |
| max | 2,38 % |
| min | -16,04 % |
Statistics for possible lower low:
| low | |
| median | 2,96 % |
| average | 2,15 % |
| probability | 38,10 % |
| max | 16,95 % |
| min | -14,01 % |
According to history, lower low has only 38,1% succeed rate. It shouldn't surprise to see strong rebound, but it looks like very volatile next week. I would buy speculative longs from these levels.
