Dax monthly seasonality

Since 1990, December has been mostly up.

Month	Prob.	Average %	Median %	Stdev
All	59.04 %	0.75 %	1.13 %	6.28 %
1	57.14 %	0.23 %	1.73 %	5.92 %
2	52.38 %	0.67 %	0.14 %	5.87 %
3	42.86 %	0.56 %	-0.04 %	4.89 %
4	76.19 %	3.88 %	3.33 %	6.68 %
5	57.14 %	0.66 %	1.38 %	4.54 %
6	52.38 %	0.04 %	0.02 %	4.76 %
7	52.38 %	1.05 %	0.01 %	7.23 %
8	52.38 %	-2.17 %	0.35 %	7.04 %
9	38.10 %	-3.20 %	-2.29 %	7.84 %
10	71.43 %	2.53 %	2.97 %	6.84 %
11	66.67 %	2.14 %	3.45 %	4.72 %
12	85.71 %	2.89 %	3.01 %	5.63 %

Dax sentiment week 49

Bearish biased friday, bullish biased monday

Dax remains in a bear market very accurately in a technical perspective. During the last couple of weeks Dax hasn't been able to break the declining trend line. Yesterday possible support Fibonacci level 5942 broke down very aggressively. Initially, 20 day moving average stopped the decline. For the coming week, 5942 could offer resistance, but the bias is on the downside. 5568 seems to be the target.

20 day highs vs. lows made a negative tick. This is a bearish signal for friday.

On a weekly basis, the intermediate term view is bullish if Dax manages to remain above 5800. McClellan indicator is still rising. Although, decrease at these levels would definitely accumulate bearish view.

Dax overbought and sold indicator hasn't finnished the down leg yet, because of the stock market being manipulated by government and central bankers. There is still room for the downside.

Dax volume index ticked below the March lows. This would confirm at least the short term target 5568.

For the conclusion, there is a little bullish bias for the next monday according to my money flow studies. So, be careful for the next couple of days.

Dax sentiment week 47

Dax got 3 new 52 week lows when Commerzbank, Daimler and Lufthansa fell to the their lowest levels.

Dax cycle is clearly pointing to lower levels and we probably have to wait 1-3 months to see the market bottom.

As we have seen, the inertia between oversold and overbought usually has been working well. This time is no exception. So, lower levels for the index expected.

Dax McClellan summation index began to fall around zero level, which is quite bad news for the index.

Dax volume index is also pointing to lower levels.

Dax indicators week 46

Few points for lower low and higher high

Dax 20-day stock performance has already fallen into negative territory, which would lead to lower lows.

Dax cycles has peaked and giving signal to lower low. However, we could see chobby road ahead, if the investors still believe in Santa Claus Rally. If this would happen, then we will see decline in stocks in January. Look what happened in the end of the years 2009 and 2010. The market kept going up with very low volume. Anyway, it is inevitable, that this indicator will eventually fall below zero and the market will follow.

 Dax overbought and oversold condition has started to go back into "equilibrium". This will lead the index to fall eventually. For long term investors, it would be wise to wait couple of months to see if the market will fall below September lows.

Dax McClellan indicator shows also negative for the index. Usually this indicator has been quite steady and showing the direction clearly. At this point it would indicate down momentum.

However, the volume index hasn't indicated the latest weakness. At the moment, it shows divergence with index. Thus, it is possible, that we won't see any dramatic downturn yet.

Also 20-day performance compared to the index indicates more market bottom than top. Although, this indicator can still go higher and we will see lower market bottom.

Dax in cross road week 46

Gap statistics open-close

open - close (current day)
Without volume increase
gap up	positive day	average %	stdev	max	min
3.00 %	100.00 %	1.08 %	1.46 %	3.67 %	0.24 %
2.50 %	83.33 %	0.74 %	1.11 %	3.67 %	-0.68 %
2.00 %	66.67 %	0.49 %	2.86 %	9.06 %	-7.07 %
1.50 %	63.46 %	0.29 %	2.28 %	9.06 %	-7.07 %
1.00 %	64.63 %	0.13 %	1.71 %	9.06 %	-7.07 %
0.50 %	62.01 %	0.14 %	1.41 %	9.28 %	-7.07 %
0.00 %	58.23 %	0.15 %	1.32 %	9.28 %	-7.07 %
gap down	positive day	average %	stdev	max	min
0.00 %	44.00 %	-0.21 %	1.46 %	11.79 %	-6.89 %
-0.50 %	40.99 %	-0.27 %	1.54 %	7.81 %	-5.65 %
-1.00 %	36.09 %	-0.31 %	1.99 %	7.81 %	-5.65 %
-1.50 %	34.04 %	-0.48 %	2.22 %	7.81 %	-4.30 %
-2.00 %	41.67 %	0.18 %	2.44 %	7.81 %	-3.91 %
-2.50 %	42.86 %	0.52 %	3.02 %	7.81 %	-3.91 %
-3.00 %	40.00 %	0.59 %	3.50 %	7.81 %	-3.91 %
With volume increase above 10 day average
gap up	positive day	average %	stdev	max	min
3.00 %	100.00 %	1.96 %	2.42 %	3.67 %	0.25 %
2.50 %	100.00 %	1.25 %	1.42 %	3.67 %	0.25 %
2.00 %	87.50 %	1.35 %	4.47 %	9.06 %	-7.07 %
1.50 %	75.00 %	1.12 %	3.72 %	9.06 %	-7.07 %
1.00 %	60.00 %	0.18 %	3.26 %	9.06 %	-7.07 %
0.50 %	60.00 %	0.39 %	2.60 %	9.28 %	-7.07 %
0.00 %	52.49 %	0.04 %	1.89 %	9.28 %	-7.07 %
gap down	positive day	average %	stdev	max	min
0.00 %	42.17 %	-0.06 %	1.85 %	11.79 %	-4.27 %
-0.50 %	44.44 %	-0.07 %	2.01 %	7.81 %	-4.27 %
-1.00 %	40.00 %	-0.07 %	2.72 %	7.81 %	-4.27 %
-1.50 %	33.33 %	-0.01 %	3.25 %	7.81 %	-4.27 %
-2.00 %	42.86 %	1.22 %	3.58 %	7.81 %	-1.54 %
-2.50 %	33.33 %	1.39 %	3.89 %	7.81 %	-1.54 %
-3.00 %	40.00 %	1.73 %	4.25 %	7.81 %	-1.54 %

Dax sentiment week 44

Dax sentiment in a bear market

Looks like the bear market rally is over soon.

McClellan oscillator is in a bear market condition. If the level won't reach 20, which I doubt, the index level will soon began to decrease.