Dax monthly seasonality

Investors waiting September anxiously


Historically September has been the worst performing and the most volatile month of the year for Dax.

Month	Prob.	Average %	Median %	Stdev
All	59,04 %	0,75 %	1,13 %	6,28 %
1	57,14 %	0,23 %	1,73 %	5,92 %
2	52,38 %	0,67 %	0,14 %	5,87 %
3	42,86 %	0,56 %	-0,04 %	4,89 %
4	76,19 %	3,88 %	3,33 %	6,68 %
5	57,14 %	0,66 %	1,38 %	4,54 %
6	52,38 %	0,04 %	0,02 %	4,76 %
7	52,38 %	1,05 %	0,01 %	7,23 %
8	52,38 %	-2,26 %	0,35 %	7,29 %
9	40,00 %	-3,12 %	-2,29 %	8,03 %
10	70,00 %	2,07 %	2,49 %	6,69 %
11	70,00 %	2,29 %	3,47 %	4,80 %
12	85,71 %	2,89 %	3,01 %	5,63 %

Dax long term update

Dax long term picture negative

Dax indicators 29.8.2011

Looks like a turning point

Our oversold indicator reached extreme level, that was not seen even during the 2008 financial crisis turmoil. Anyway, the underlying indicator is showing a little improvement as can be seen from the picture below. At this point, we are expecting the law of inertia to bring the condition for supply and demand to "balanced" level. Before we reach the level, Dax has two options: to consolidate or reach higher level. We are expecting the latter to happen.

 20-day highs versus lows showing improvement. As can be seen, the conditions was very abnormal when above indicator (orange line) reached it's minimum point.

 Normalised TRIN made surged nicely to positive levels which is needed to achive higher levels for the underlying index. 

 Ok, the volume hasn't accumulated yet. This would be, the last confirmation for (mid-term) bulls.

Overall the situation looks very promising for bulls. The market could turn into positive before earnings report. The risk/reward for long positions looks very promising at these levels.

On vacation

The office is closed. Back in normal schedule 24.8.2011

Dax long term

I still believe, that there could be a rebound to 6500-6700 before more selling.

 At least my earlier statistics support this view.

Dax 5.8.2011 high volume with some support

Lower stock prices seemed to interest investors as the volume surged almost to the highest level during this bull market.

Previously I wrote that the volume index hasn't confirmed the lower prices yet, but eventually this happened.

Interestingly, McClellan Indicator fell to even lower level than during the bear market 2008-2009...

Since TRIN turned positive, we could believe that some buyers are awakening, and thus, bears are becoming weaker.

Volume-based cumulative accumulation/distribution based on stock volumes also peaked into positive territory, so this suggests rebound.

Dax oversold/overbought indicator calculates supply (green) and demand (red). The sellers have pushed the red line almost too high, so within a week we should see a rebound.

Quite quickly, there are 9 stocks that made 52-week lows last friday. As you may notice, previously this happened 28.1.2008, 23.7.2008 and during Lehmann collapse. Even during the capitulation and the lowest index level in March 2009 we didn't get as many 52-week lows.

Dax long term

This situation reminds me of January 2008