Positive cumulative money flow continues.
Thursday, January 5, 2012
Dax sentiment week 1
Europe bearish, US bullish
It seems that US investors have been trying to push the stocks up, otherwise Europeans would have dragged the market down. Also Asians have been in a bearish mood lately. It seems that there are more bearish signals than bullish even the market hasn't wanted to decline, yet.
Dax McClellan indicator is currently at level zero, which would be nice touch if we want to have a turning point here.
Advancing stocks minus declining stocks turned negative.
Dax McClellan oscillator is way too high! Haven't seen this high level for ages.
20 day stock performance has been building up negative divergence. Normally this high level would mean short term market bottom, but this doesn't look like a bottom. So, it seems that Dax should decline a little bit to have a real market bottom.
Volume index hasn't followed the advance in prices. Even the price index made high levels, the volume is waiting the prices to decline.
US money flow
Even this blog is mostly about Dax, it is interesting to follow something what is going on in the other side of Atlantic Sea. One interesting thing to follow is money flow, is there any new money coming into investments or existing money being drawed out. A good source to follow money flow is WSJ money flow page.
Here I have collected data how block trades have being doing recently. I use 13 day cumulative sum to have a smoother picture. It seems that big investors have been still adding their long positions recently and betting for the upside.
However, if we look this in a little longer perspective, the recent money flow has been very low... So, the big bets have been placed already 2010 and before that, and yet the investors haven't done any markable outflows.
Here I have collected data how block trades have being doing recently. I use 13 day cumulative sum to have a smoother picture. It seems that big investors have been still adding their long positions recently and betting for the upside.
However, if we look this in a little longer perspective, the recent money flow has been very low... So, the big bets have been placed already 2010 and before that, and yet the investors haven't done any markable outflows.
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Dax: exhaustion or measuring gap?
If Dax falls below 6070, yesterday's gap will be categorized as an exhaustion gap which normally marks a trend change. So, beware of lower low!
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
Dax monthly resistance
Previous month highs could be important support/resistance area:
December high: 6170,04
November high: 6193,34
December high: 6170,04
November high: 6193,34
Dax volume 2.12.2012
Seems like volume has totally dried out. Previously this hasn't been pleasant situation for bulls. In the below graph, volume has been calculated by summing up the volume of individual Dax stocks and the outcome has been smoothed by exponential moving average.
Monday, January 2, 2012
Dax short term 2.1.2012
In simple graphical terms, seems like Dax is in very interesting situation. 61,8% Fibonacci and the upper descending trend line have been reached at the same time. Obviously we have to get some good news to help Dax break up. Otherwise, when we will fall from this point, the bearish signs I earlier mentioned are becoming stronger. I try to be very objective, but there are already some bearish signs and the upcoming weeks haven't been historically bull-friendly, so extra cautiousness at the moment is very much needed.
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