US money flow

Even this blog is mostly about Dax, it is interesting to follow something what is going on in the other side of Atlantic Sea. One interesting thing to follow is money flow, is there any new money coming into investments or existing money being drawed out. A good source to follow money flow is WSJ money flow page.

Here I have collected data how block trades have being doing recently. I use 13 day cumulative sum to have a smoother picture. It seems that big investors have been still adding their long positions recently and betting for the upside.

However, if we look this in a little longer perspective, the recent money flow has been very low... So, the big bets have been placed already 2010 and before that, and yet the investors haven't done any markable outflows.

Dax: exhaustion or measuring gap?

If Dax falls below 6070, yesterday's gap will be categorized as an exhaustion gap which normally marks a trend change. So, beware of lower low!

Dax monthly resistance

Previous month highs could be important support/resistance area:

December high: 6170,04
November high: 6193,34

Dax volume 2.12.2012

Seems like volume has totally dried out. Previously this hasn't been pleasant situation for bulls. In the below graph, volume has been calculated by summing up the volume of individual Dax stocks and the outcome has been smoothed by exponential moving average.

Dax short term 2.1.2012

In simple graphical terms, seems like Dax is in very interesting situation. 61,8% Fibonacci and the upper descending trend line have been reached at the same time. Obviously we have to get some good news to help Dax break up. Otherwise, when we will fall from this point, the bearish signs I earlier mentioned are becoming stronger. I try to be very objective, but there are already some bearish signs and the upcoming weeks haven't been historically bull-friendly, so extra cautiousness at the moment is very much needed.

Dax 20 day sentiment

Direction is unclear even a little bit bearish biased.

Many indicators are quite neutral at the moment. So, we are still waiting the break out up or down.

I have noticed that many Dax indicators are quite reliable with a length of 20 day. After all, Dax is a cyclical index according to how it trades, and also the underlying companies depend highly from the growth of the whole world.

When tracking how unique companies have traded last 20 days compared to index, we see that the situation is somehow neutral. 40 % of the companies are performing better than the index. In the graph below I use 10 day moving average to smoothen the indicator. The smoothed indicator is currently standing at 49%.

Still the volume index is leading down, yesterday it made the 20 day low.

Below there are marked all the past cases during last year when volume index has reached the 20 day low. In the short term, the odds are very high that we will eventually see lower close than 5771 during next 5 days. Although, in a little longer term this has also lead to a short term market bottom.

US money flow 28.12.2011

Yesterday's money flow was a little bit negative, but cumulative calculations still show positive progress.